How to Read Prediction Market Odds

Price is probability

A YES contract trading at 62¢ implies roughly a 62% market-assessed chance of the event resolving YES, paying $1 if it does. The NO side is the complement.

Bid, ask, and spread

The bid is what buyers currently offer; the ask is what sellers demand. A tight spread indicates an active, contested market; a wide or one-sided book means the displayed price rests on little commitment.

Volume, open interest, and lifecycle

Volume counts contracts traded; open interest counts positions still open. Both feed the confidence labels on this site. Lifecycle matters just as much: an upcoming game, an in-progress event, and a long-duration election behave like different asset classes.

Analytics are research tools

Everything on Logit Terminal — overextension, crowd cost basis, reversion, calibration — is a research instrument for understanding market behavior. None of it is a recommendation.

Prediction Market Calibration · Volume and Open Interest in Prediction Markets · Methodology · Dashboard