Overview / Elections / Contract detail
Will Kai Newkirk be the Democratic nominee for AZ-04?
Closes in 481d·Azprimary
8¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
15¢crowd cost basis
-8¢distance from crowd basis
4.14×vol vs peers
4,45524h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Elections cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
4.14×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0248Category median logit vol/hr
15¢Crowd cost basis
99%Cost-basis conviction
45Similar category unusual moves
24%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 99% · profiled volume 13,275 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Elections reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
45unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
24%partial reversion rate
-12%avg move given backnet: kept extending