Overview / Climate and Weather / Contract detail
Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?
Settles Jul 31, 10AM ET·Droughtlevel
36¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
70¢crowd cost basis
-34¢distance from crowd basis
2.45×vol vs peers
9,73724h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Climate and Weather cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
2.45×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0599Category median logit vol/hr
70¢Crowd cost basis
88%Cost-basis conviction
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 88% · profiled volume 96,165 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.