Overview / Entertainment / Contract detail
Will Half-Life 3 release this year?
Closes in 176d·Gamerelease
6¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
0¢crowd cost basis
+6¢distance from crowd basis
19.63×vol vs peers
1,37724h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Entertainment cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
19.63×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0601Category median logit vol/hr
0¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
2Similar category unusual moves
50%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 5,246 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Entertainment reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
BUILDING SAMPLE · n=22unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
50%partial reversion rate
21%avg move given back