Overview / Science and Technology / Contract detail
Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 24, 2026?
Settles Jul 24, 12AM ET
40¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
70¢crowd cost basis
-30¢distance from crowd basis
1.61×vol vs peers
93524h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Science and Technology cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
1.61×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0466Category median logit vol/hr
70¢Crowd cost basis
57%Cost-basis conviction
4Similar category unusual moves
75%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 57% · profiled volume 2,704 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Science and Technology reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
BUILDING SAMPLE · n=44unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
75%partial reversion rate
113%avg move given back