LT
Logit Terminal Research
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi (licensed)
Last updated2026-07-10T03:33
Status
Not trading advice

Overview / Science and Technology / Contract detail

Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 24, 2026?

Settles Jul 24, 12AM ET

40¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
70¢crowd cost basis
-30¢distance from crowd basis
1.61×vol vs peers
93524h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Science and Technology cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

1.61×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0466Category median logit vol/hr
70¢Crowd cost basis
57%Cost-basis conviction
4Similar category unusual moves
75%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~6h ago~3h agolatestCrowd basis 70¢~6h before latest: 72.0¢~5h before latest: 72.0¢~4h before latest: 69.0¢~3h before latest: 69.0¢~2h before latest: 40.0¢~1h before latest: 39.0¢latest: 40.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 57% · profiled volume 2,704 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.03867721,1591,5450¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ current price bucket: 1,159 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 1,545 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Science and Technology reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

75% GAVE BACK
25% CONTINUED
BUILDING SAMPLE · n=4
4unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
75%partial reversion rate
113%avg move given back