LT
Logit Terminal Research
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi (licensed)
Last updated2026-07-10T03:33
Status
Not trading advice

Overview / Commodities / Contract detail

Will the gold close price be above 4086.99 USD/t.oz on July 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET

80¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
50¢crowd cost basis
+30¢distance from crowd basis
1.1×vol vs peers
34024h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Commodities cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

1.1×Vol vs comparable peers
0.1372Category median logit vol/hr
50¢Crowd cost basis
68%Cost-basis conviction

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~6h ago~3h agolatestCrowd basis 50¢~6h before latest: 62.0¢~5h before latest: 66.0¢~4h before latest: 48.0¢~3h before latest: 48.0¢~2h before latest: 82.0¢~1h before latest: 85.0¢latest: 80.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 68% · profiled volume 1,052 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.01783565337110¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 711 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ current price bucket: 341 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.