Overview / Politics / Contract detail
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?
Settles Mar 17, 12AM ET·Hormuznorm
16¢current price
-1.46σoverextension z · high
15¢crowd cost basis
+0¢distance from crowd basis
1.23×vol vs peers
21,39624h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Politics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
1.23×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0334Category median logit vol/hr
15¢Crowd cost basis
81%Cost-basis conviction
30Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 81% · profiled volume 162,765 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Politics reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
30unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back