Overview / Sports / Contract detail
What will be LeBron James's next team?
Closes in 105d·Other sports
12¢current price
-1.57σoverextension z · high
20¢crowd cost basis
-8¢distance from crowd basis
0.94×vol vs peers
689,03924h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
0.94×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0522Category median logit vol/hr
20¢Crowd cost basis
90%Cost-basis conviction
262Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 90% · profiled volume 2,741,506 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
262unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
9%avg move given back