Overview / Elections / Contract detail
Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 14, 2026?
Closes in 4d·Platnerdropo
92¢current price
-0.26σoverextension z · high
95¢crowd cost basis
-3¢distance from crowd basis
2.8×vol vs peers
998,45424h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Elections cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
2.8×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0248Category median logit vol/hr
95¢Crowd cost basis
66%Cost-basis conviction
45Similar category unusual moves
24%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 66% · profiled volume 2,991,427 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Elections reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
45unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
24%partial reversion rate
-12%avg move given backnet: kept extending