Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will Lionel Messi lead FIFA World Cup in Goals for the 2026 World Cup Full Tournament?
Closes in 28d·Other sports
36¢current price
+0.38σoverextension z · high
40¢crowd cost basis
-4¢distance from crowd basis
1.76×vol vs peers
126,66724h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
1.76×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0522Category median logit vol/hr
40¢Crowd cost basis
73%Cost-basis conviction
262Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 73% · profiled volume 570,279 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
262unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
9%avg move given back