Calibration Watch — 2026-07-30
Implied price buckets vs actual YES settlement rates. Low-sample buckets are greyed.
perfect calibration
1%25%50%75%100%
actual YES rate when sample is sufficientdotted line = perfect calibrationexpected/implied value when no samplelow sample bucket
Hover any bar for bucket value and sample size. 5 of 100 buckets currently have enough settled samples; muted bars preserve the full probability scale without overstating thin data.
Research flags, not recommendations. Methodology · Dashboard