Prediction Market Anomaly Report — 2026-07-30
As of 2026-07-30T15:10:00+00:00: 0 rankable markets carry overextension flags, 25 show elevated volatility vs peers, and 12 scheduled event-style markets are upcoming. Effectively resolved and post-event markets are excluded throughout.
Most Overextended
Needs a few more collection cycles of history before z-scores populate.
Distance From Crowd Basis
| Market | Price | Crowd basis? | Distance? | Since start? | Volume profile | Conviction? | Profiled vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Coding AI this week? Settles Jul 20, 12AM ET·Techranklist | 4¢ | 90¢ | -86¢ | — | 54% | 12,963 | |
| Astana vs Dinamo City Winner?LIVE Live event · 347.2h since start·Other sports | 96¢ | 30¢ | +66¢ | — | 32% | 43,878 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be 99-100° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightdc | 84¢ | 20¢ | +64¢ | — | 50% | 1,307 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be <99° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightdc | 18¢ | 80¢ | -62¢ | — | 52% | 3,351 | |
| Will the maximum temperature be 92-93° on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Hightdal | 70¢ | 15¢ | +56¢ | — | 27% | 1,413 | |
| Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 16, 2026? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET | 12¢ | 65¢ | -54¢ | — | 57%THIN | 148 | |
| Ferencvarosi wins by more than 2.5 goals?LIVE Live event · 347.2h since start·Other sports | 78¢ | 30¢ | +48¢ | — | 47% | 1,131 | |
| Will Jie Cui win the Forbes vs Cui: Round Of 16 match?LIVE Live event · 347.2h since start·Tennis | 33¢ | 80¢ | -47¢ | — | 35% | 776,896 | |
| Will the silver close price be above 56.50 USD/t.oz on July 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Settles Jul 16, 12AM ET·Silverd | 4¢ | 50¢ | -46¢ | — | 38% | 502 | |
| The Open Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 5 in Round 1? Closes in 17d·Golf | 95¢ | 50¢ | +45¢ | — | 100%THIN | 170 |
Research flags, not recommendations. Methodology · Dashboard