LT
Logit Terminal Research
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi (licensed)
Last updated2026-07-10T03:33
Status
Not trading advice

Volatility Watch — 2026-07-10

Hourly logit volatility vs lifecycle/expiry peers. Low-sample baselines are labeled; pinned and post-event markets excluded.

MarketTrendPriceσ logit/hr?Vol vs peers?Vol 24h
Will Brian Hualde be the Democratic nominee for AZ-05?
Closes in 481d·Azprimary
1.254549.2×284
Will Dale Holness be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
Closes in 481d·Flprimary
0.791931.05×376
Will Thom Tillis vote for Todd Blanche?
Closes in 175d·Voteblanche
80¢0.969629.12×957
Will Los Angeles D win at least 115 games this season?
Closes in 121d·MLB
10¢1.635527.28×1,085
Will Travis Scott be featured on 'The Real Me' by Future?
Closes in 175d·Feature
63¢0.720221.63×44,356
Will Nav be featured on 'The Real Me' by Future?
Closes in 175d·Feature
12¢0.69220.78×189
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference Finals?
Closes in 370d·NHL
0.68720.63×207
Will Utah be the 2026 Pro Basketball Summer League champion?
Closes in 17d·NBA
28¢1.219620.23×6,126
Will Tom Holland be the next James Bond?
Closes in 1271d
0.505419.82×161
Will Half-Life 3 release this year?
Closes in 176d·Gamerelease
0.653619.63×1,377
Will Fomo launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Tokenlaunch
0.582317.49×588
Will Blades Brown win the The Blue Championship?
Closes in 16d·Other sports
0.94715.7×6,945
Will ZANSIDE GAMING win the ZANSIDE GAMING vs. Falcons Overwatch match?UPCOMING
Starts Jul 10, 6AM ET·Other sports
11¢0.940715.6×276
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.90 by Dec 31, 2026?
Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Aaagasminny
29¢0.512515.39×107
Will Celsius advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final
Settles Jul 19, 12AM ET
32¢0.508315.26×5,983

Research flags, not recommendations. Methodology · Dashboard